Tariff Turbulence Ahead.
That said, the tariff hikes being contemplated are the largest and most extensive since the 1930s. At an AI summit in Washington last week, Trump suggested he would not go below a 15 percent threshold as he sets reciprocal tariffs for the Aug. 1 deadline. Previously, 10 percent was the lower boundary.
The latest estimate of the Yale Budget Lab model of the average effective U.S. tariff rate is approximately 17 percent, up from 2 percent at the start of this year.
However, the Financial Times reports that the tariff rate based on actual trade is about one-half of the effective rate, because importers stockpiled goods ahead of the April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement. by Nicholas Sargen (The Hill)
The tariffs are just now settling over the World economy and have yet to dig in an find a resting place. The international trade order is being realigned and America’s allies are teaming up to try and blunt the full force of the price hikes. How this will play out and the inevitable winners and losers have yet to be determined. There will however be an economic reckoning in some manner that is likely to evade prediction.
