China On Balloon Defensive.

February 7, 2023 Glen Turpening

China was not prepared for the international snafu that originated with last week’s balloongate incident. (CNN.com)

China maintains the vessel, which was shot down by the US over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday, was a weather balloon thrown off course. And it has shown signs of both being caught off guard by the incident and wanting to stem the potential damage, analysts say, not only framing the situation as the result of factors beyond its control, but also offering a rare expression of “regret” over it in a statement Friday. While some crucial facts of the situation remain unclear, Beijing’s official response – and the timing of the incident, which resulted in the US’ postponement of the Blinken visit – suggest its leadership is now grappling with how to handle a diplomatic crisis that has inflamed the very tensions it had been hoping to mend. “By all accounts, the Chinese leadership was looking forward to having direct talks with Blinken … it would be very plausible that (Chinese leader Xi Jinping) would want to make sure everything was smooth in the lead up to the visit,” said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

Analysis by Simone McCarthy and Nectar Gan, CNN

The question remains why? What was the purpose of the balloon that hovered over America for a month and did the Chinese really believe it would evade detection? Did some element within the PRC launch the balloon to derail the now cancelled Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip? Those are the questions that the intelligence community is asking in the wake of the balloongate. Will the public be privy to the answers? That may be a bigger question.